Wednesday Seminar Series: Dr. Klaus Desmet, SMU, NBER, and CEPR

Wednesday, November 10, 2021 12:00 PM to 1:15 PM EST
Carow Hall, 01

Presentation: The Instability of Nations: A Global Analysis of 3,000 Subnational Regions 

Abstract: This paper analyzes whether the propensity to secede by
subnational regions responds mostly to income per capita differences or to the existence of a distinct identity. We explore this question in a quantitative political economy model where people are less willing to finance a public good if they are richer or if their identity is different. Using high-resolution economic and linguistic data for the entire globe, we predict for 3,003 subnational regions their propensity to secede. We validate the model-based predictions with data on secessionist movements, state fragility, regional autonomy, and conflict. Counterfactual analysis strongly suggests that identity is more important than economics in determining a region's propensity to secede.

 

The Seminar Series, now over 35 years old, invites scholars from around the world to share their work in a formal lecture, which is followed by a rigorous question and answer session. The Fall 2021 seminars will be hosted by Dr. Noel Johnson and coordinated by Lisa Hill-Corley and Kashiff A. Thompson. All papers made available will be posted on this site for downloading. For more information, call the Center: (703) 993-2316.

In person seminars will be held from 12 - 1:15pm in Carow Hall, which is on George Mason University's Fairfax campus. A light lunch for seminar participants will be available at 11:45 am.

Click here to see a list of our Fall 2021 schedule of speakers.